As COP30 kicks off in Brazil marking the 10-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement on climate change, the outlook appears bleak for ESG investors.
In 2015 leaders across the world committed to limit the global temperature rise to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C. Yet, the latest data from Copernicus shows that 2024 breached the 1.5°C threshold.
And in his address to the COP30 summit this week, UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer highlighted the lack of collaboration and unity between nation states.
“10 years ago, the world came together in Paris united in our determination to tackle the climate crisis. A consensus that was based on science that is unequivocal. The only question was how fast we could go. Today, sadly that consensus is gone,” Starmer said.
Miranda Beacham, Head of UK Responsible Investment at Aegon Asset Management, notes that despite the Paris Agreement’s ambition, only 65 countries have submitted updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035.
“That leaves 128 countries silent, and just 65 per cent of global emissions covered. The absence of major emitters like the US during key periods, and China’s yet-to-be-submitted NDC, further complicates progress.”
And analysis of the NDCs submitted highlights a significant ambition gap between national climate plans and the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Arianna Griffa, Senior Policy Manager – Global at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change, said: “Emissions trajectory is downward, but countries are not decarbonising fast enough.”
Disharmony is not limited to companies and is also evident within the asset management community on climate action.
A report from Sustainalytics published this November noted: “Institutions are choosing different paths [on their decarbonisation journey]. Some, like BlackRock, Vanguard, and Wells Fargo, are retreating from ambitious targets and alliances, while others, such as Nordea Bank and Itaú Unibanco, are advancing and, in some cases, surpassing interim goals. Across the spectrum, climate leaders are still expected to demonstrate firm commitments, credible strategies, consistent progress, strong oversight, and robust disclosure.”
However, Beacham said all is not lost and COP30 promises some opportunity for change.
“There are reasons to be hopeful. In 2015, solar and wind made up less than 5 per cent of the global energy mix; today, they account for 15 per cent. Electric vehicle sales have surged from half a million to over 15 million in 10 years. Many developed economies are now decoupling emissions from growth, showing that climate action and prosperity can go hand in hand.”
She added that COP 30’s thematic agenda – focusing on cities, infrastructure, resilience, moral obligation, and biodiversity – signals a shift from mitigation alone to adaptation and ethical governance.
“It’s encouraging to see biodiversity and climate discussed together, as they are deeply interconnected. As the summit unfolds in the heart of the Amazon, we remain hopeful that COP 30 will inspire renewed commitment and collaboration. The road ahead is complex, but with inclusive dialogue and bold leadership, meaningful progress is still within reach.”
